Daily Market Outlook, November 16, 2022 “Risk sentiment rocked by stray rocket hitting Poland, reports that a missile landed on the Polish border killing at least two caused a dramatic pullback in US markets, however, as it became clearer that the reported ‘missile’ was more debris from a Ukrainian defensive action markets stabilised, overnight President Biden confirmed that the missile was ‘unlikely’ to have been launched from Russia. The timely reminder of the current extreme geo-political risk has set a cautious tone to trading in Asia and Europe this morning. In the UK focus shifts to BoE Governor Bailey's appearance in front of the Monetary Policy Committee, traders will parse comments for further guidance as to the BoE’s rate path, ahead of tomorrow’s budget statement. In the US, markets await retail sales and industrial production data, with higher rates pressuring consumers it is likely that some softness in retail data persists. Yesterday’s softer producer price data was viewed as further support for the FOMC to reduce the rate of rate hikes in the US, however, Fed policymakers retain a cautious tone in their rhetoric, reminding markets that rates still have further to go even if the rate of the rises slow, further Fed speakers today are likely to underline this approach. In other news former President Trump has officially announced his intention to run for the US Presidency in 2024…”Overnight HeadlinesNATO, G7 Offer Support To Poland Over Investigation Into Blasts – RTRSBiden Says Unlikely Rocket That Hit Poland Was Fired From Russia – BBGOil Edges Lower As Missile Strike On Poland Sparks Volatility – BBGGold Firms On Fed Slowdown As Investors Assess Poland Blast – RTRSCurrencies On Edge As Traders Assess Risks From Poland – RTRSPoland Rocket Blast Caused By Missile Fired By Ukrainian Forces – RTRSPoland Set To Invoke NATO's Article 4, Raise Missile Blast With UN – RTRSPoland's Duda: No Concrete Evidence On Who Fired Border Missile – RTRSUS Stock Futures Fall As Investors Await October Retail Sales – CNBCApple Prepares To Get Made-In-US Chips In Pivot From Asia – BBGAmazon Commences Job Cuts In Alexa Unit, Cloud Gaming – CNBCChina’s PBoC Governor: Talks With Yellen ‘Very Constructive’ – BBGANZ Raise China 2023 Growth Forecast On ‘Policy Normalising’ – BBG Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3950TechnicalsPrimary support is 3950Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3935 opens a test of 390020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.02851.0466 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary support is 1.0285Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.05Failure below 1.0270 opens a test of 1.016520 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0200-10 (1.83BLN), 1.0225-35 (428M), 1.0250-55 (1.02BLN), 1.0350 (394M), 1.0370 (1.93BLN)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.17901.20 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary support is 1.1790Primary upside objective 1.2050Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1970Failure below 1.1780 opens a test of 1.171020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1695-00 (414M), 1.1800 (319M)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 141139.26 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary resistance is 141Primary downside objective is 136Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138Acceptance above 142 opens a test of 143.1020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 140.00-10 (777M), 140.75 (350M), 141.00 (490M), 142.25 (200M), 142.50 (351M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6650.6760 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary support is .6650Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775Failure below .6620 opens a test of .655020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/ABTCUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 16800TechnicalsPrimary support is 157700Primary upside objective is 18325Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 17000Failure below 15500 opens a test of 1440020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
Daily Market Outlook, November 16, 2022
