Daily Market Outlook, November 18, 2022

Daily Market Outlook, November 18, 2022 OvernightAsian markets are mostly mixed, with US equity futures also declining after some tough talk from US Fed speakers, specifically St Louis member Bullard who suggested that a 5% rate was a minimum terminal rate objective with the potential for a 7% rate being eyed by the committee. In the UK following Chancellor Hunt’s bleak warnings regarding the economic outlook, UK retail sales released this morning posted a modest 0.6% gain for October reversing the large declines of the prior two months of data, however, this is still 6.1% lower than this time last year. The pop in retail sales was accompanied by an improvement in the GFK consumer confidence reading which edged up this month although this is from record lows levels.Day AheadIn the UK focus will be on Bank of England's external member Jonathan Haskel who speaks at a conference later, the discussion is regarding fiscal policy, markets will pay attention to his comments in light of yesterday’s bleak UK budget update and how it may feed into his thoughts on the path of UK interest rates.In the US markets will be watching October existing home sales for further signs of weakness driven by the increase in interest rates, data yesterday showed continued declines in housing construction to 4.2%Overnight HeadlinesFed's Kashkari: Not Stopping Rate Hikes Until Inflation PeaksPoll: Fed To Hike Rate By 50Bps, Peak Policy Rate Still HigherWhite House's Adviser: Dedicated To Tech Antitrust LegislationMortgage Rates Reach Biggest Drop Since 1981, Fall To 6.61%PBoC Adviser Says China Growth Target Should Be at Least 5%Japan Inflation Hits 40-Year High, Weak Yen Fans Import CostsBoJ Governor Kuroda Rules Out Hike Until Wages Rise FurtherNorth Korea Fires Suspected ICBM After Warning On ExercisesUK Consumer Confidence Ticks Up In Sigh Of Relief After TrussItaly PM Meloni Set To Present EUR30 Billion Budget To CabinetSNB's Maechler: Rates Will Hike If Inflation Still Above EstimatesTechnical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3900TechnicalsPrimary support is 3900Primary upside objective is 4120Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050Failure below 3900 opens a test of 384020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0250TechnicalsPrimary support is 1.0250Primary upside objective is 1.0620Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.05Failure below 1.0230 opens a test of 1.018020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0200-05 (839M), 1.0225 (687M), 1.0240-50 (597M) 1.0300-10 (1.19BLN), 1.0325 (678M), 1.0350 (206M) 1.0450 (2.7BLN), 1.0475 (268M), 1.0500 (566M)GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.17301.20 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary support is 1.1730Primary upside objective 1.2050Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1970Failure below 1.17 opens a test of 1.164020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1700 (560M), 1.1750-55 (257M)USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 140139.26 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary resistance is 141.50Primary downside objective is 136Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138Acceptance above 141.60 opens a test of 143.1020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishToday's New York Cut Option Expiries: 138.90-00 (660M), 139.45 (567M), 140.00-05 (413M) 140.50 (1.4BLN), 142.00 (590M)AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6600.6760 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnicalsPrimary support is .66Primary upside objective is .6900Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775Failure below .66 opens a test of .655020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishToday’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6650 (528M), 0.6660 (701M), 0.6750 (202M)BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16800TechnicalsIntraday 157700 is primary supportPrimary upside objective is 18325Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 17000Failure below 15500 opens a test of 1440020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish